Economistul şef al BCE avertizează că economia nu se va redresa deplin în viitorul apropiat

Philip Lane, economistul şef al Băncii Centrale Europene (BCE), a avertizat asupra acordării unei importanţe disproporţionate recentelor date economice şi a posibilităţii ca în următoarea perioadă consumatorii şi companiile să fie afectaţi de creşterea numărului de cazuri de coronavirus pe plan global, transmite Bloomberg, citat de Agerpres.

„Nu ar fi înţelept” să tragem rapid concluzii după ce economia zonei euro a avut în trimestrul doi din 2020 o performanţă mai bună decât se estima, concluziile ar trebui evaluate împreună cu datele privind evoluţia din trimestrul trei”, a apreciat Lane într-o postare pe blogul BCE.

Creşterea numărului de cazuri de coronavirus în unele regiuni europene precum şi pe plan global afectează încrederea consumatorilor şi investiţiile companiilor, a atras atenţia oficialul BCE.

„Aceşti factori ne ajută să explicăm de ce va dura o perioadă îndelungată de timp până când economia se va redresa deplin în urma şocului provocat de pandemia de coronavirus (COVID-19), şi de ce sunt necesare măsuri fiscale şi monetare semnificative”, a declarat economistul şef al BCE.

Datele preliminare publicate vineri de Eurostat arată că economia zonei euro a înregistrat un declin de 12,1% în trimestrul doi din 2020, cea mai semnificativă scădere de când se publică aceste date, respectiv 1995. BCE previziona un recul de 13%.

Alte date arată o redresare a economiei mai rapidă în mai şi iunie, după atenuarea restricţiilor introduse pentru a stopa răspândirea pandemiei, astfel încât declinul din trimestrul trei ar putea fi mai redus decât se estima, a apreciat Lane.

Acesta a adăugat: „Nivelul şocului economic rămâne extraordinar de ridicat şi perspectivele extrem de nesigure”.

Şi preşedintele Băncii Centrale Europene, Christine Lagarde, a dat asigurări că instituţia va menţine „mecanismul de siguranţă” al achiziţiilor sale masive de obligaţiuni cel puţin până în iunie 2021, pentru a sprijini redresarea economiei.

„Trebuie realmente să menţinem mecanismul de siguranţă şi condiţii foarte atractive, cel puţin până în iunie 2021”, a afirmat vineri şeful BCE, într-un interviu acordat publicaţiei franceze Le Courrier Cauchois.

Luna trecută, Banca Centrală Europeană a decis să menţină nemodificată dobânda de politica monetară, la cel mai scăzut nivel din istorie.

Potrivit unui comunicat de presă al BCE, Consiliul guvernatorilor a decis că rata dobânzii la operaţiunile principale de refinanţare şi ratele dobânzilor la facilitatea de creditare marginală şi la facilitatea de depozit vor rămâne nemodificate la nivelurile de 0,00%, 0,25% şi, respectiv minus 0,50%.

Ca răspuns la cea mai mare contracţie a economiei din istoria recentă, BCE a început să cumpere mai cantităţi de obligaţiuni şi, de asemenea, plăteşte băncile pentru ca acestea să acorde credite, totul în încercarea de a salva economia blocului comunitar. BCE şi-a confirmat disponibilitatea de a continua programul de achiziţii de titluri de stat (PEPP) atâta timp cât persistă efectele pandemiei. Acest plan de sprijinire a economiei în valoare totală de 1.350 miliarde euro ar urma să se întindă până în luna iunie 2021.

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