Revenire economică din trimestrul III al acestui an

Ministrul Finanţelor Publice, Florin Cîţu, susține că Romania vă avea o revenire din trimestrul al III-lea, în V, acesta fiind scenariul de bază cu care lucrează și BNR în momentul de față. „Asta înseamnă creștere economică în 2021”, spune Cîțu, înt-o postare făcută pe contul său de Facebook.

„Economia globală trece prin cea mai dură perioadă din ultima sută de ani. Șocul suferit de toate economiile este dublu. O criză de sănătate prelungită care s-a transformat într-o criză economică. Toate țările, fară excepție, sunt afectate de cele două crize. Revenirea depinde foarte mult de modul în care guvernele, în special mix-ul de politica monetară și fiscală, răspund la această criză. Cam peste tot răspunsul a fost similar: injecție de lichidități în economie, atât prin politica fiscală, cât și prin politica monetară.

Pe partea de politica fiscală, deficitul în UE, în medie a crescut cu aproximativ 8 puncte procentuale de la 1% la 9%. În majoritatea țărilor acest lucru a însemnat o creștere a cheltuielior bugetare cu aproximativ 6 sau 7 puncte procentuale. Bineînțeles că peste tot au scăzut și veniturile semnificativ.

Pe partea de politică monetară, băncile centrale au intervenit și au injecatat lichiditate în economie prin reducerea dobânzilor de politica monetară aproape de zero.

În medie, în UE răspunsul politicii fiscale a fost mai mare decât cel al politicii monetare. Din doua motive.

În primul rand politica fiscală avea spațiu de manevră. În UE deficitul bugetar mediu era de 1% estimat pentru 2020. Dobânzile în majoritatea țărilor erau deja reduse și politica monetară nu avea prea multă forță. Totuși majoritatea țărilor au dus dobânzile de politica monetară la zero și au intervenit pe piață secundară pentru a cumpără obligațiuni și a scădea și mai mult dobânzile.

În al doilea rand, politica fiscală acționează imediat, pe termen scurt și are rolul de a atenua din socul pe care îl resimte fiecare țară iar politica monetara acționează pe termen mediu și lung și are rolul de a asigura creșterea economică în perioada următoare. Băncile centrale stiu foarte bine rolul important al dobânzilor reale zero sau negative pentru creșterea economica viitoare și de aceea au reacționat peste tot și dobânzile de politica monetara au scăzut imediat aproape de zero”, a scris Cîțu.

Potrivit ministrului, în cazul României, politica fiscala a răspuns „imediat, puternic și mai ales țintit”, astfel că la prima rectificare bugetara deficitul bugetar a crescut cu 3 puncte procentuale.

Cîțu susține că răspunsul României la criza a fost influențat „de politica fiscala dezastruoasă a socialiștilor și hoților care au condus economia în ultimii ani”.

„România a intrat în criză cu un deficit bugetar de 3.7% estimat față de media UE de 1%. Nu ne oprim aici și continuam să injectam lichiditate în economie și la a doua rectificare bugetară din acest an. Totuși, și în aceste condiții BNR recunoaște aportul important al politicii fiscale la diminuare șocului crizei asupra economiei României”, mai arată ministrul Economiei, 

În opinia sa, BNR recunoaşte şi în aceste condiţii aportul important al politicii fiscale la diminuare şocului crizei asupra economiei României, respectiv „efectele favorabile induse de măsurile de politică fiscală şi de cele privind veniturile sunt proiectate a se resimţi cu precădere pe parcursul anului curent.

În concluzie, Cîțu a arătat că toate țările vor avea o contracție economică în 2020, majoritatea urmând să treacă printr-o recesiune tehnică. Nu este însă și cazul României, spune ministrul, care afirmă că țara noastră va evita recesiunea tehnica și va avea o contracție a economiei mai mica decât estimările publice făcute agențiile de rating, CE, FMI institutii bancare etc, datorita răspunsului prompt și eficient al politicilor economice. Cu toatea astea, liberalul recunoaște că „tot vom avea o contracție a economiei în 2020, ceea însemană venituri la buget mult mai mici decât cele estimate, chiar daca similare cu cele din anul precedent”.

Florin Cîțu și-a motivat analiza „mai lungă” pe aceste subiect, ca urmare a apariției în spațiul public, spune el „a tot felul de opinii aruncate după publicarea raportului BNR, care trebuiau corectate”.” Nu ar fi trebuit să fac acest lucru dacă, cei care au tot „citat” din raportul BNR, l-ar fi citit”, a mai spus Cîţu.

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