Analiză a Băncii Mondiale: Economia României se va contracta cu 5,7%. Majorarea pensiilor cu 40% și slaba absorbție a banilor europeni, riscuri majore

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Realitatea Financiara
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Economia românească ar urma să se contracte cu 5,7% anul acesta, dar va avea o revenire de 4,9% în 2021, conform celei mai recente actualizări a prognozei economice a Băncii Mondiale pentru Europa şi Asia Centrală. Instituția financiară avertizează, însă, că dacă majorarea cu 40% a pensiilor este pusă în practică, efectele vor fi devastatoare și ar duce la retrogradarea ratingului suveran.

Pentru a răspunde la consecinţele pandemiei de COVID-19, Banca Mondială se aşteaptă ca deficitul fiscal al României să ajungă la 9,1% din PIB în 2020, iar în 2021 la un deficit de 6,3%. „O reducere substanţială a deficitului în 2021 este puţin probabilă deoarece Guvernul va trebui să sprijine procesul de revenire economică”, precizează comunicatul Bancii Mondiale.

În august, ministrul Finanțelor Florin Cîțu estima o contracției economică de 3,9% din PIB și un deficit bugetar de 8,6% din PIB.

Severitatea recesiunii şi magnitudinea revenirii din 2021 vor depinde de evoluţia crizei sanitare şi răspunsul decidenţilor, de impactul stimulentelor economice şi de consecinţele stimulentelor adoptate la nivelul UE”, subliniază Banca Mondială, potrivit Agerpres.

Pe de altă parte, instituția atrage atenția că majorarea pensiilor cu 40% poate avea efecte severe, greu de reparat. „(…) Dacă majorarea pensiilor cu 40%, adoptată recent de Parlament, nu va fi inversată, aceasta ar afecta în mod serios stabilitatea macroeconomică şi, pe termen scurt, ar conduce la o retrogradare a ratingului suveran al României„.

Banca Mondială susţine că, pe termen scurt, principala provocare este ţinerea sub control a crizei COVID-19 şi limitarea consecinţelor sale economice şi sanitare. „O criză prelungită cu măsuri suplimentare de atenuare pentru a reduce transmiterea ar reduce perspectivele de creştere şi ar amâna relansarea incipientă a activităţii, crescând în acelaşi tip şomajul şi sărăcia„, apreciază Banca Mondială.

Un alt risc pentru România este reprezentat de capacitatea relativ redusă de absorbţie a fondurilor europene, ceea ce, în opinia Băncii Mondiale, ar putea face ca țara noastră să nu profite de fondul de relansare pus la dispoziție de UE.

Care sunt estimările și vulnerabilitățile semnalate de analiza Băncii Mondiale, la nivel global, aflați pe Realitatea Financiară.

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

Articolul precedentAmenzi de peste 400.000 de lei date de ITM Brașov! Cele mai mari sancțiuni, pentru munca nedeclarată
Articolul următorCel mai mare număr de infectări cu Sars-CoV-2 de la începutul pandemiei în România -2.958

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    Analiză a Băncii Mondiale: Economia României se va contracta cu 5,7%. Majorarea pensiilor cu 40% și slaba absorbție a banilor europeni, riscuri majore – Realitatea Financiară

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