BNR atrage atenția că deficitul bugetar va ajunge în 2021 la peste 11% din PIB, dacă Guvernul mărește pensiile cu 40%

BNR, a publicat un document exploziv după ce Parlamentul a decis majorarea pensiilor cu 40%, nu cu 14%, așa cum stabilise Guvernul. BNR atrage atenția că deficitul bugetar va ajunge în 2021 la peste 11% din PIB, cu aproape șase procente mai mare decât acum.

Un risc sistemic mare este posibil prin agravarea stării bugetului public, a finanţelor publice, destabilizarea economiei dacă se majorează punctul de pensie cu 40%, ceea ce ar duce la o creştere a deficitului bugetar în 2021 la peste 11% din PIB. Am avea o reacţie a pieţelor financiare ce ar putea afecta grav economia, îngreunând revenirea în 2021. În loc de o corecţie macroeconomică ordonată, pe mai mulţi ani, am fi obligaţi la o corecţie dezordonată, foarte costisitoare economic şi social”, se precizează în raport.

„Este obligatoriu să evităm ca economia românească să intre într-o spirală de criză foarte periculoasă. Acoperirea necesarului de finanţare pentru acest an este asigurată în largă măsură, dar mult mai problematică ar putea fi acoperirea finanţării pe termen mediu în lipsa unui program clar de corecţie macroeconomică. Este greu de crezut că pieţele financiare vor tolera/accepta, pentru o perioadă îndelungată, niveluri înalte ale deficitului bugetar, chiar dacă devierea de la cerinţele PSC, regulile fiscale în UE, vor rămâne suspendate şi în 2021”, se mai arată în raport.

Este necesară creşterea veniturilor fiscale (bugetare) pentru a face faţă unor crize viitoare, pentru a avea un buget public mai robust. O creştere a bazei de impozitare ar ajuta corecţia macroeconomică din următorii ani. O asemenea creştere ar ajuta mult ca procesul de corecţie macroeconomică să nu fie însoţit de taxe şi impozite mai mari, ceea ce ar fi o corecţie suboptimă”, susţin autorii raportului.

„Este îndoielnic că pieţele vor accepta deficite bugetare mari ani în şir. Trebuie făcută distincţie între cheltuieli permanente şi cheltuieli one-off, cauzate de nevoia de a atenua efectele epidemiei.

Dacă revenirea economică va fi mai anevoioasă în 2021 decât cea anticipată şi ar fi nevoie de susţinere temporară a activităţii economice, este probabil că, într-un context judecat la scara europeană, să se disocieze o corecţie pe componenta structurală a deficitului total de cheltuieli nepermanente.

Corecţia deficitului bugetar şi a deficitului structural, este necesară în următorii ani dacă vrem să ţinem lucrurile sub control. Această corecţie presupune un program pe câţiva ani, în concordanţă cu solicitarea CE, care să ducă deficitul aproape de 3% din PIB. Se poate gândi care ar fi combinaţii între ajustări de cheltuieli şi creştere de venituri fiscale/bugetare, în principal de mărire a bazei de impozitare. Oricum, impactul va fi semnificativ, concomitent pe cerere şi pe ofertă”, se mai spune în raport.

„Corecţia este necesară şi pentru a limita deficitele externe, mai ales că până în 2019 fenomenul deficitelor gemene era proeminent. Trebuie date semne clare şi credibile că vrem să avem o corecţie ordonată.

Programul de corecţie trebuie să fie coordonat cu CE, pentru a avea acordul privind calendarul de timp şi măsurile avute în vedere. Pasul de corecţie depinde de creşterea veniturilor fiscal/bugetare.

Se pot raţionaliza cheltuieli acolo unde risipa este mare, aparatul de stat trebuie să fie restructurat; creşteri de venituri finanţate de bugetul public trebuie să fie limitate în anii ce vin”, se precizează în document.

De asemenea, economiştii atrag atenţia celor care văd deprecierea cursului drept calea decisivă pentru corecţia macroeconomică şi menţionează că se cuvine să aibă în vedere câteva considerente. Astfel, o depreciere controlată poate ajuta, în
timp ce una scăpată de sub control poate destabiliza economia, „inclusiv printr-o fugă de leu”. Aici sunt de avut în vedere anticipări inflaţioniste, efecte de bilanţ pentru gospodării şi firme, grad de euroizare, etc. „În Polonia şi Ungaria, în Cehia, problema cursului (deprecierii) nu este atât de senzitivă ca la noi. În România, corecţia cererii agregate, a dezechilibrului extern, nu se poate face esenţialmente prin depreciere; este necesară o ajustare a deficitului bugetar, chiar dacă în mod gradual”, arată raportul.

„Dacă vrem să facem pasul de intrare în MCS2 este obligatoriu să avem o corecţie macroeconomică durabilă odată impactul pandemiei surmontat.

Această corecţie implică, între altele, creştere de venituri bugetare (o bază de impozitare mai largă prin transparenţă, declararea tuturor veniturilor şi averilor, eliminarea de exceptări, combaterea fermă a evaziunii fiscale), raţionalizare de cheltuieli.

Cu absorbţie intensă de resurse europene putem sprijini reforme structurale şi corecţia macroeconomică necesară. Trebuie să limităm deficitele externe, să avem în vedere competitivitatea economiei, mai ales a sectoarelor de tradables”, se mai spune în raport.

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

Articolul precedentFlorin Cîțu: O guvernare liberală înseamnă taxe mai mici și mai puține
Articolul următorConsiliul Investitorilor Străini: Măsurile adoptate de Parlament slăbesc economia

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  70. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a video game where you can do anything you want. sl is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life articles and blogs

  71. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a online game where you can do anything you want. Second life is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these second life articles and blogs

  72. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life websites and blogs

  73. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these sl websites and blogs

  74. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually-Japanese rattan

  75. This site provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of Cialis, evaluation of Cialis, and side effects of Cialis. Cialis? As the first-choice health food for men’s impotence health care, it is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and has a significant prolongation for men-Japanese rattan

  76. This site provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of Cialis, evaluation of Cialis, and side effects of Cialis. Cialis? As the first-choice health food for men’s impotence health care, it is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and has a significant prolongation for men-Japanese rattan

  77. Weiergang’s real experience experience ptt Weiergang’s effect is really awkward, I’m afraid that my girlfriend will not be able to go back after trying it. Taiwan’s Old Driver Pharmacy 2020-06-16. Recently, I saw many villagers talking about Weier in the PTT section. The steel effect is very awkward. So I will also post-Cialis

  78. Cialis, also known as taranafil (English names: cialisr, chinacialisr), is the world’s three major aphrodisiac–? Produced by Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals in the United States. Its efficacy is as long as 36 hours. It is the first choice for sexual dysfunction, Levitra

  79. Weiergang’s real experience experience ptt Weiergang’s effect is really awkward, I’m afraid that my girlfriend will not be able to go back after trying it. Taiwan’s Old Driver Pharmacy 2020-06-16. Recently, I saw many villagers talking about Weier in the PTT section. The steel effect is very awkward. So I will also post-Cialis

  80. Sildenafil (English: Sildenafil), also translated as sildenafil, is a drug for male erectile dysfunction accidentally invented during the development of drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. For controlled drugs, they can be prescribed for use only after a doctor’s diagnosis. Japanese rattan

  81. Sexual stimulation is a necessary condition for Granville to exert its efficacy. The stronger the sexual stimulation, the better the efficacy. Emotions, fatigue, anxiety, and the cooperation of a partner will affect the male’s sexual response, and it will also affect the role of Weiergang.

  82. Weiergang’s real experience experience ptt Weiergang’s effect is really awkward, I’m afraid that my girlfriend will not be able to go back after trying it. Taiwan’s Old Driver Pharmacy 2020-06-16. Recently, I saw many villagers talking about Weier in the PTT section. The steel effect is very awkward. So I will also post.

  83. Priligy (English name: Priligy Chemical name: Dapoxetine hydrochloride) is currently the only drug developed for premature ejaculation (PE) and the only premature ejaculation approved by the State Food and Drug Administration (CEDA).

  84. Sildenafil (English: Sildenafil), also translated as sildenafil, is a drug for male erectile dysfunction accidentally invented during the development of drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. For controlled drugs, they can be prescribed for use only after a doctor’s diagnosis.

  85. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually.

  86. Sildenafil (English: Sildenafil), also translated as sildenafil, is a drug for male erectile dysfunction accidentally invented during the development of drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. For controlled drugs, they can be prescribed for use only after a doctor’s diagnosis.

  87. The eye, or perhaps much better refer to it switch, is white-colored and features slender along with extended hour or so markers.

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  91. Sexual stimulation is a necessary condition for Granville to exert its efficacy. The stronger the sexual stimulation, the better the efficacy. Emotions, fatigue, anxiety, and the cooperation of a partner will affect the male’s sexual response, and it will also affect the role of Weiergang.

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  99. If you can’t even get an erection, eating Granville is useless! Xu Lanfang explained that male erections need to receive sexual stimulation, such as A-films, A-books, and other sexual desire content, at which time the brain will release.

  100. Viagra (Taiwan name: Viagra) is an oral treatment drug developed by Pfizer, USA. It is used to treat erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation, and has a very significant improvement in erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation.

  101. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  104. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually.

  105. Cialis, also known as taranafil (English names: cialisr, chinacialisr), is the world’s three major aphrodisiac–? Produced by Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals in the United States. Its efficacy is as long as 36 hours. It is the first choice for sexual dysfunction.

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  107. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually.

  108. Basically, the blue Viagra is a well-known old medicine, while the yellow Cialis has a long-lasting effect. As for Levitron, the side effects caused by the lower dose are less, so that Taiwan’s annual sales can be expected to reach. Multi-billion dollar market.

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  111. Hi Sildenafil (English: Sildenafil), also translated as sildenafil, is a drug for male erectile dysfunction accidentally invented during the development of drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. For controlled drugs, they can be prescribed for use only after a doctor’s diagnosis.

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