Ana Maria Păcuraru: Ce se află, de fapt, în spatele crizei gazului din România?

In caz ca nu ati observat, preturile la gaz nu au scazut iar moneda nationala isi pierde din valoare, rezultand inflatie. Ca povestea sa fie completa, cresc si ratele dobanzilor, dar si somajul. Sa incepem, insa, cu criza gazului din Romania.

In primul rand, trebuie sa identificam nucleul inflatiei. Cum se produce inflatia? Daca tu, ca firma, vei avea costuri triple la energie, la gaz, toate acestea o sa se resimta mai departe catre consumatorul final. Adica la romanul de rand. Iar acest lucru va genera inflatie. In alte cuvinte, daca tu maresti preturile la electricitate si gaz, o sa generezi scumpiri in lant care o sa determine, evident, inflatie. Este simplu.

Deseori vorbim despre faptul ca nu avem stocuri suficiente de gaz, mai ales din moment ce TransGaz importă gaz. Insa nu este chiar asa. Trebuie sa intelegem că TransGaz a asteptat pana sa gaseasca gaz. Transgazului ii trebuie echilibrare. Daca se intampla ca cineva sa nu livreze gaz, TransGaz trebuie sa asigure echilibru ca sa creeze acel „flow”.

In acest moment, TransGaz nu are volumul de gaz necesar echilibrarii pentru ca trebuie sa retinem faptul ca aceste gaze se mai si tin in conducta pentru ca nu stii cand vei avea nevoie de ele. Asadar, dacă TransGaz n-a reusit sa gaseasca aceste gaze intern, a cautat in afara Romaniei.

Totodata, Elcen are flexibilitate lunara, depinzand de temperatura de afara si de consum. Iar asta accentueaza deficitul de gaze, in timp ce Romgaz vrea ca din productie proprie sa poata acoperi aceste cereri.

Mai mult, TransGaz incearca sa gaseasca punctele de intrare a gazelor din tara. In depozite, la acest moment sunt gaze. Problema sta in felul urmator: gazul nu se transporta atat de usor precum electricitatea. Problema este ca, daca vom avea zile geroase de iarna, o sa ne confruntam cu incapacitatea de extractie.

Este important de retinut: ca sa transporti gaz in strainatate, trebuie sa rezervi capacitate pe conducta. Trebuie sa se plateasca o taxa pe ora pana ajunge la destinatie. De asemenea, pe ora se poate transporta numai o anumita cantitate pe conducta. Asadar, ne confruntam din nou cu problema de „flow”. Mai mult, toate gazele se platesc in avans. Nu da nimeni, nici Romgaz nici Petrom altfel.

Rezultatele licitatiilor anticipate au aratat, luni, ca gigantul rus de gaz Gazprom nu a rezervat o capacitate suplimentara de tranzit de gaze pentru noiembrie, fie prin sistemul de conducte ucrainene, fie prin liniile catre vestul Europei prin Polonia.  Rezultatele licitatiei sunt considerate un semnal cheie pentru piata volumelor viitoare, deoarece au loc cu doua-trei saptamani inainte de luna in care curge gazul natural. Analistii energetici spun ca rezultatele arata ca Rusia se grabeste putin sa intensifice aprovizionarea catre regiune si ofera dovezi suplimentare ca Kremlinul incearca sa permita o pornire lina a fluxurilor comerciale prin Nord Stream 2.

Coridorul Nordstream 2 – Rusii au facut gazoductul Nordstream 2 care ocoleste Europa, prin Marea Baltica. Cui serveste de fapt gazoductul? Conducta traverseaza zonele economice din cinci tari: Rusia, Germania, Danemarca, Finlanda si Suedia. Ies din schema Romania, Ucraina si Bulgaria. Insa, pana acum, rusii aveau nevoie de Romania ca sa transporte gazul. Romania era tara de tranzit. Este aceasta metoda de manipulare a Europei?

Nord Stream 2 a devenit o valiza fara maner: greu de carat, greu de abandonat. Fostul cancelar german Angela Merkel si alti lideri europeni sustin conducta, dar trebuie sa fie accentuata avertizarea ca o conducta care circula din Rusia prin Ucraina catre Germania ii va face pe americani mai dependenti de presedintele rus Vladimir Putin și ii va da o victorie geopolitica majora. Biden l-a acuzat pe Trump ca ar fi fost moale in fata Rusiei, dar acum vinde Ucraina pentru a furniza Germaniei gaz natural.

Si care este ironia in faptul ca Statele Unite platesc pentru apararea europeana impotriva Rusiei, in timp ce Germania, cea mai mare economie europeana, sprijina acordurile de gaze cu Moscova. Si, bineinteles, Joe Biden a raspuns oferindu-i lui Vladimir Putin singurul lucru pe care si-l dorea cel mai mult, care era conducta Nord Stream 2, capacitatea de a termina acest lucru si posibilitatea de a controla fluxul de energie in Europa de Vest.

Cine profita de pe urma acordului americano-german care da unda verde finalizarii gazoductului Nordstream 2? Oricine, numai relatiile transatlantice si lumea libera nu.

Intorcandu-ne la Romania, singura diferenta fata de anul 2019 este ca nu mai avem 20% din gazele de la rusi. Nordstream 2 a facut toata diferenta si liberalizarea pietei este in efect cu energia verde. Ai nevoie de un volum constatnt de energie, care din pacate este doar nucleara, gaz si carbune, in timp ce energia verde depinde de debitul apei, de soare si de vant. Deci, nu este rentabil.

Este important sa sesizam ca acest deficit a fost creat in anul 2020, cand oamenii nu prea au consumat, iar acum nu este destula energie pentru ca am revenit spre consumul normal. S-a produs o furtună perfecta si asa am ajuns sa avem 30% din sistemul energetic in pierdere.

Deseori, citesc si teoria cum ca Romgaz si-a redus extractia in ultimele luni si noi nu beneficiem de preturi preferentiale. Aici se produce o confuzie majora. Romgaz nu a redus nicio extractie. A deschis tot ce se putea deschide si pune in productie. Petrom a redus productia din cauza declinului natural al zacamintelor. Cand extragi de 100 de ani gaz din pamant, se mai si termină si daca nu investesti in alternative, dar folosesti banii pentru subventii si plafonari, se ajunge fix aici. Daca ne uitam pe date, Petrom si Romgaz nu au acoperit vreodata 100% din piata din Romania.

Pour la bonne bouche, seful Pentagonului, Lloyd Austin, viziteaza Romania azi, inainte de a participa la reuniunea ministrilor Apararii din NATO, la Bruxelles. Austin si-a caracterizat opririle planificate in Georgia, Ucraina si Romania ca un raspuns inconfundabil la agresiunea rusa crescuta in regiune, un subiect probabil discutat pe larg la Bruxelles. Ce nu inteleg este… de ce este Romania pe lista? Conflictul cu Romania NU exista. Ce inseamna acest conflict fictiv cu Rusia? Noi doar vrem gazul ieftin rusesc!

Articolul precedentOFICIAL Amenzi de zeci de mii de lei pentru angajatorii care nu plătesc salariile la timp
Articolul următorCriza politică și sanitară, COȘMARUL românilor care au rate. ROBOR a crescut din nou

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