PIB-ul global va depăşi pentru prima dată 100 de mii de miliarde de dolari în 2022

PIB-ul global va depăşi pentru prima dată 100 de mii de miliarde de dolari în 2022 iar China va avea nevoie de mai mult timp decât s-a estimat iniţial pentru a depăşi Statele Unite, devenind prima economie mondială, susţine compania britanică de consultanţă Cebr, potrivit Agerpres, care citează  Reuters.

Într-un raport publicat duminică, Cebr susţine că prima şi a doua economie a lumii vor face schimb de locuri, în funcţie de Produsul Intern Brut exprimat în dolari, în 2030, cu doi ani mai târziu decât estima în urmă cu un an.

India ar urma să depăşească Franţa în 2022 şi apoi Marea Britanie în 2023 pentru a-şi câştiga titlul de a şasea economie mondială.

Raportul arată că Germania este în grafic pentru a depăşi Japonia, devenind a treia economie mondială în 2033, în timp ce Rusia ar putea fi inclusă până în 2036 în top zece economii globale iar Indonezia pare a fi în grafic pentru a deveni a noua economie mondială în 2034.

„Problema importantă în această perioadă este modul în care economiile globale vor face faţă impactului inflaţiei, care a ajuns acum la 6,8% în Statele Unite. Sperăm că o ajustare relativ modestă a inflaţiei ridicate va duce elementele non-tranzitorii sub control. Dacă nu, economia mondială s-ar putea confrunta cu o recesiune în 2023 sau în 2024, apreciază vicepreşedintele Cebr, Douglas McWilliams.

Economia mondială intră într-o fază de risc inflaţionist, a avertizat în octombrie Fondul Monetar Internaţional, făcând un apel către băncile centrale să fie „foarte, foarte vigilente” şi să ia măsuri devreme pentru a înăspri politica monetară dacă presiunile preţurilor se vor dovedi a fi persistente.

Scenariul de bază al FMI este că inflaţia va creşte semnificativ până la finele anului, după care se va modera la mijlocul lui 2022, iar ulterior va reveni la nivelul la care era înaintea pandemiei. Însă, raportul WEO publicat recent atrage atenţia că „riscurile inflaţioniste sunt orientate în sus” şi sfătuieşte băncile centrale să acţioneze dacă presiunile preţurilor dau semne că vor persista.

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

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