Economia zonei euro ar urma să înregistreze un avans de 8,3% în trimestrul al treilea comparativ cu trimestrul precedent

Economia zonei euro evoluează în conformitate cu traiectoria anticipată în iunie de Banca Centrală Europeană (BCE), astfel încât oficialii BCE îşi permit să aştepte să apară noi date statistice, a declarat miercuri Peter Kazimir, guvernator al Băncii Naţionale a Slovaciei şi unul din membri consiliului guvernatorilor BCE, transmite Agerpres.

Semnalele iniţiale arătau că economia zonei euro îşi va reveni mai rapid decât se preconiza din recesiunea provocată de pandemie însă cele mai recente date statistice, inclusiv datele privind încrederea în economie, sugerează că revenirea s-a aplatizat iar blocul comunitar va înregistrat o performanţă sub aşteptări în trimestrul al treilea.

„După părerea mea suntem în linie cu scenariul de bază. Avem marja necesară pentru a aştepta să apară date credibile”, a spus Peter Kazimir.

Conform prognozelor BCE, economia zonei euro ar urma să înregistreze un avans de 8,3% în trimestrul al treilea comparativ cu trimestrul precedent, iar instituţia cu sediul la Frankfurt ar urma să vină cu noi estimări la reuniunea de politică monetară din 10 septembrie.

Pentru a contracara recesiunea, BCE a început să cumpere cantităţi record de obligaţiuni în ideea de a menţine costul cu împrumuturile la un nivel redus, inclusiv graţie unui program de 1.350 miliarde euro denumit Programul de Achiziţii Urgente în Pandemie (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme – PEPP).

Cu toate acestea, miercuri Peter Kazimir a subliniat că BCE nu este obligat să cheltuiască toate fondurile prevăzute în PEPP. „Am spus deja în trecut că odată ce vom atinge un răspuns adecvat pe partea fiscală, atunci desigur nu vom fi obligaţi să utilizăm întreaga anvelopă PEPP”, a spus Kazimir.

Deşi BCE cumpără în continuare obligaţiuni în valoare de aproape 20 de miliarde de euro în fiecare săptămână, volumul achiziţiilor este mult mai mic decât cel înregistrat la început, unul din motive fiind creşterea încrederii pieţelor şi reducerea volumelor de obligaţiuni în lunile de vară.

„Ceea ce vedem este că PEPP funcţionează şi este un răspuns foarte adecvat la criză”, a apreciat Kazimir.

În luna iunie, BCE a anunţat că se aşteaptă la o contracţie de 8,7% a Produsului Intern Brut al zonei euro în acest an, urmată de o relansare de 5,2% anul viitor şi un avans de 3,3% în 2022. 

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