Cădere istorică a PIB-ului Japoniei în trimestrul al doilea

Produsul Intern Brut al Japoniei a înregistrat în al doilea trimestru o cădere de 7,8% comparativ cu trimestrul precedent, ca urmare a impactului pandemiei de coronavirus, un plonjon istoric care marchează totodată cel de al treilea trimestru consecutiv de contracţie pentru cea de a treia economie a lumii, transmite AFP, citat de agerpres.

Această cădere de 7,8%, conform datelor preliminare publicate luni de guvernul nipon, vinde după o contracţie de 0,6% în primul trimestru şi una de 1,9% în ultimul trimestru al anului trecut, care au marcat intrarea Japoniei în prima recesiune de după 2015. Definiţia tehnic a recesiunii este două trimestre consecutive de contracţie a PIB-ului.

Contracţia de 7,8% înregistrată în perioada aprilie-iunie 2020 este de asemenea şi cea mai brutală cădere a PIB-ului Japoniei de la debutul publicării datelor statistice cu privire la acest indicator, în 1980.

Majoritatea analiştilor intervievaţi de agenţia Bloomberg se aşteptau la un recul mai modest, de 7,5%.

Economia japoneză, afectată încă din ultimul trimestru al anului trecut de o majorare a TVA, a suferit impactul coronavirusului în primul trimestru din 2020. În al doilea trimestru, activitatea economică a avut şi mai mult de suferit după introducerea stării de urgenţă, în lunile aprilie şi mai. Consumul gospodăriilor a scăzut cu 8,6% comparativ cu trimestrul precedent iar investiţiile companiilor au scăzut cu 1,5%. Comerţul exterior a avut şi el de suferit, înregistrând o scădere de 18,5% a exporturilor şi o scădere de 0,5% a importurilor. În schimb, investiţiile publice, care au scăzut un primul trimestru, au crescut cu 1,2% în trimestrul aprilie-iunie.

Scăderea PIB-ului în trimestrul al doilea poate fi atribuită stării de urgenţă din lunile aprilie şi mai, iar cifrele arată o îmbunătăţire a situaţiei începând din luna iunie, a comentat Yoshiki Shinke, economist la institutul de cercetare Dai-ichi Life.

„Cifrele pentru perioada iulie-septembrie ar trebui să arată un început de revenire, după ridicarea stării de urgenţă”, a comentat la rândul său Naoya Oshikubo, economist la SuMi Trust, care mizează pe o creştere economică de 2,6% în trimestrul al treilea comparativ cu trimestrul al doilea.

Cu aproximativ 54.000 de cazuri de infecţie şi o mie de decese legate de maladia de Covid-19, Japonia a fost mai puţin afectată decât numeroase ţări europene şi americane, ale căror economii au suferit de pe urma pandemiei. Astfel, zona euro a înregistrat în trimestrul al doilea un recul al PIB de 12,1%, ca urmare a unor căderi mult mai grave ale economiilor din Franţa, Italia şi Spania. 

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