Redresarea economică a României va scădea ca dinamică, dar va rămâne robustă și în 2022, arată o analiză realizată de Euler Hermes. Partea mai puțin plăcută este că această creștere se va baza pe cheltuielile de consum, iar pentru stoparea derapajelor creditarea bancară ar trebui limitată.
Creşterea economică este estimată la peste 7% în 2021 şi peste 4% în 2022, arată Euler Hermes, citat de Mediafax.
În acelaşi timp, deşi riscurile inflaţioniste sunt crescute pe fondul unor politici monetare în general slabe, politica monetară se bazează pe ţintirea inflaţiei în intervalul de 2,5% ± 1pp.
Pe de altă parte, analiza subliniază faptul că, pe fondul redresării şi al creşterii preţurilor la energie, inflaţia a crescut la aproape 5% la mijlocul lui 2021, mult peste intervalul ţintă.
Pentru a stopa această creştere, analiştii se aşteaptă ca BNR să înceapă o înăsprire treptată a politicii monetare, prin oprirea relaxării cantitative şi creşterea ratei dobânzii de referinţă.
”Ultimele evoluţii în materie de preţuri ale materiilor prime la nivel global coroborate cu înrăutăţirea indicatorilor macroeconomici din zona de îndatorare şi de perturbările politice vor menţine o presiune crescută asupra inflaţiei.”
Economia crește pe seama eliminării firmelor cu probleme
Analiza Euler Hermes Romania mai atrage atenția asupra faptului că, cel mai probabil, în contextul diluării treptate a impactului pozitiv al măsurilor de sprijin acordate de stat după momentul martie-iunie 2021 este posibil să crească insolvenţele. „Avem în vedere companiile ce nu vor putea transfera către beneficiari mare parte din creşterile de costuri. Menţinem o atenţie crescută pentru sectorul serviciilor şi al anumitor segmente din comerţul cu amănuntul offline – încă în refacere după criza de anul trecut, al construcţiilor – deşi cu o evoluţie favorabilă până acum, dar cu o volatilitate confirmată a cererii pe diferitele segmente, cât şi al construcţiei de maşini şi al componentelor aferente – unde revenirea cererii pare întârziată de lipsurile pe partea de semiconductori.” a afirmat Mihai Chipirliu, CFA, Risk Director Euler Hermes Romania.
Prognoza inflaţiei rămâne ridicată, la peste 4% până la sfârşitul anului 2021 şi de scădere graduală sub 3.5% pe parcursul lui 2022.
În opinia Euler Hermes, sunt totuşi riscuri semnificative de înrăutăţire a prognozei, în primul rând din cauza creşterii susţinute a preţurilor materiilor prime şi costurilor transportului internaţional, întreruperilor continue ale lanţului de aprovizionare, înăspririi condiţiilor de pe piaţa muncii, creşterii rapide a creditului intern, a deficitului de cont curent şi a deprecierii substanţialăe a leului.
Potrivit analizei, finanţele publice vor continua să se deterioreze şi să devină un motiv de îngrijorare. Un puternic stimul fiscal prociclic a generat un deficit anual de -4,4% din PIB în 2019. Ca urmare a stimulilor fiscali, a garanţiilor de împrumut şi a subvenţiilor pentru IMM-uri, acest raport a crescut brusc la -9,2% în 2020.
Sursa: Realitatea Financiara
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