Redresarea economică a României va scădea ca dinamică, dar va rămâne robustă și în 2022, arată o analiză realizată de Euler Hermes. Partea mai puțin plăcută este că această creștere se va baza pe cheltuielile de consum, iar pentru stoparea derapajelor creditarea bancară ar trebui limitată.
Creşterea economică este estimată la peste 7% în 2021 şi peste 4% în 2022, arată Euler Hermes, citat de Mediafax.
În acelaşi timp, deşi riscurile inflaţioniste sunt crescute pe fondul unor politici monetare în general slabe, politica monetară se bazează pe ţintirea inflaţiei în intervalul de 2,5% ± 1pp.
Pe de altă parte, analiza subliniază faptul că, pe fondul redresării şi al creşterii preţurilor la energie, inflaţia a crescut la aproape 5% la mijlocul lui 2021, mult peste intervalul ţintă.
Pentru a stopa această creştere, analiştii se aşteaptă ca BNR să înceapă o înăsprire treptată a politicii monetare, prin oprirea relaxării cantitative şi creşterea ratei dobânzii de referinţă.
”Ultimele evoluţii în materie de preţuri ale materiilor prime la nivel global coroborate cu înrăutăţirea indicatorilor macroeconomici din zona de îndatorare şi de perturbările politice vor menţine o presiune crescută asupra inflaţiei.”
Economia crește pe seama eliminării firmelor cu probleme
Analiza Euler Hermes Romania mai atrage atenția asupra faptului că, cel mai probabil, în contextul diluării treptate a impactului pozitiv al măsurilor de sprijin acordate de stat după momentul martie-iunie 2021 este posibil să crească insolvenţele. „Avem în vedere companiile ce nu vor putea transfera către beneficiari mare parte din creşterile de costuri. Menţinem o atenţie crescută pentru sectorul serviciilor şi al anumitor segmente din comerţul cu amănuntul offline – încă în refacere după criza de anul trecut, al construcţiilor – deşi cu o evoluţie favorabilă până acum, dar cu o volatilitate confirmată a cererii pe diferitele segmente, cât şi al construcţiei de maşini şi al componentelor aferente – unde revenirea cererii pare întârziată de lipsurile pe partea de semiconductori.” a afirmat Mihai Chipirliu, CFA, Risk Director Euler Hermes Romania.
Prognoza inflaţiei rămâne ridicată, la peste 4% până la sfârşitul anului 2021 şi de scădere graduală sub 3.5% pe parcursul lui 2022.
În opinia Euler Hermes, sunt totuşi riscuri semnificative de înrăutăţire a prognozei, în primul rând din cauza creşterii susţinute a preţurilor materiilor prime şi costurilor transportului internaţional, întreruperilor continue ale lanţului de aprovizionare, înăspririi condiţiilor de pe piaţa muncii, creşterii rapide a creditului intern, a deficitului de cont curent şi a deprecierii substanţialăe a leului.
Potrivit analizei, finanţele publice vor continua să se deterioreze şi să devină un motiv de îngrijorare. Un puternic stimul fiscal prociclic a generat un deficit anual de -4,4% din PIB în 2019. Ca urmare a stimulilor fiscali, a garanţiilor de împrumut şi a subvenţiilor pentru IMM-uri, acest raport a crescut brusc la -9,2% în 2020.
Sursa: Realitatea Financiara
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Online gaming is one of the most rapidly growing
industries in the world of the Internet. Indeed, some analysts
had anticipated that gaming would become as big as travel and
financial services in terms of revenue if they were not larger.
However, the legislation that was approved through the Thailand have meant that several of the biggest gaming websites, particularly those
that deal with gambling, had a significant amount of
their revenues wiped out within a short time. Since the American market closed or unaccessible for
many businesses, many have turned to international markets.There are huge and lucrative markets for
non-English-speaking countries that are enjoying rapid growth across the globe.
Making sure your site is translated into local languages lets you take advantage of these lucrative opportunities in the
developing world. The results of studies have shown that
internet users are four times more likely to make a purchase on a website which is written in their native language even if they know English.
Since 70% of internet users don’t view the English language as their mother language, just imagine how much dollars you’re losing out
on. It’s definitely time to take advantage of translation services
today.Many nations in Asia are flourishing and the gaming industry
is growing with it. Singapore has already lifted its 40-year ban on gambling, after realizing
that it draws large numbers of tourists, creates
employment, and improves the economy. There are many other nations in the region such as Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand with a growing market for gambling on the internet.
And, of course, there is Thailand. Thailand presents
a massive market for gaming companies of all kinds.
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