Se anunță vremuri grele pentru economia românească

Analiştii CFA România anticipează un deficit bugetar de 6,8% din PIB în 2021, iar datoria publică ar putea atinge 53% din PIB pentru orizontul de 12 luni, potrivit unui comunicat de presă al organizaţiei. Conform sursei citate, valoarea medie a anticipaţiilor privind evoluţia în termeni reali a PIB în anul 2021 este de +7,2%.

În ceea ce priveşte cursul de schimb euro/leu, peste 87% dintre participanţii la sondaj prevăd o depreciere a leului în următoarele 12 luni (comparativ cu valoarea actuală). Astfel valoarea medie a anticipaţiilor pentru orizontul de 6 luni este de 5,0196, în timp ce pentru orizontul de 12 luni valoarea medie a cursului anticipat este 5,0672 lei pentru un euro.

Indicatorul de Încredere Macroeconomică al Asociaţiei CFA România a scăzut cu 0,9 puncte comparativ cu luna anterioară, la valoarea de 73,6 puncte (faţă de aceeaşi lună a anului precedent, indicatorul a crescut cu 40,3 puncte). Scăderea s-a datorat
componentei de anticipaţii a indicatorului. Rata anticipată a inflaţiei pentru orizontul de 12 luni a înregistrat o valoare medie de 4,38%.

„Pe fondul prudenţei generate de intrarea în valul 4 al pandemiei, indicatorul de încredere macroeconomică a scăzut pentru a doua lună consecutiv, însă se menţine la un nivel ridicat, aproape de maximul istoric, ceea ce denotă încredere în evoluţia economică viitoare. De asemenea, în contextul creşterii ratei inflaţiei, participanţii anticipează majorarea ratelor de dobândă de piaţa monetară în următoarele 12 luni, inclusiv cel puţin două majorări de rată de dobândă de politică monetară, de către
BNR”, a declarat Adrian Codirlaşu, vicepreşedinte al Asociaţiei CFA România.

De asemenea, se menţionează că peste 95% din participanţii la sondaj prevăd majorarea ratelor de dobândă de piaţa monetară
(ROBOR 3M), nefiind înregistrată nicio opinie de reducere a acestei rate, iar peste 79% dintre participanţi anticipează majorarea ratelor de dobândă pentru scadenţele de 5 şi 10 ani.

În contextul atenţiei sporite a autorităţilor europene cu privire la protecţia mediului înconjurător, atenţie concretizată în reglementări cu privire la luarea în considerare a factorilor ESG (factorii de mediu, sociali şi de guvernanţă) de către instituţiile financiare, au fost introduse în sondaj întrebări cu privire la conştientizarea de către instituţiile financiare a acestor reglementări, pregătirea instituţiilor financiare pentru asigurarea respectării noilor reglementări, precum şi suportul oferit clienţilor pentru asigurarea respectării lor.

Conform răspunsurilor participanţilor, principalul impediment în implementarea factorilor ESG este insuficienţa informaţiilor, urmat de lipsa expertizei în acest domeniu.

Sondajul este realizat lunar de Asociaţia CFA România, de peste 10 ani, şi reprezintă un indicator prin intermediul căruia organizaţia doreşte să cuantifice anticipaţiile analiştilor financiari cu privire la activitatea economică în România pentru un orizont de timp de un an. Sondajul este realizat în ultima săptămână a fiecărei luni iar participanţii sunt membri ai Asociaţiei CFA România şi candidaţii pentru nivelurile II şi III ale examenului CFA.

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

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