Situaţia de pe piaţa mondială a zahărului depinde de introducerea unor noi măsuri de izolare

Un nou val de măsuri de izolare din cauza pandemiei de coronavirus va decide dacă lumea va avea prea mult sau prea puţin zahăr, transmite Bloomberg, citat de agerpres.

Unii din cei mai importanţi analişti au opinii împărţite dacă piaţa zahărului se va confrunta cu un surplus sau un deficit în sezonul care va începe luna viitoare. Această diferenţă de opinie depinde de cât de mult va reduce pandemia consumul sau cât de mult va determina Brazilia, cel mai mare producător mondial, să producă mai mult zahăr mai scump, în loc de bioetanol mai ieftin.

Producţia mondială de zahăr ar urma să fie mai mică decât cererea cu până la 1,1 milioane tone în sezonul următor, susţine Patricia Luis-Manso, directorul departamentului de analiză pe agricultură de la S&P Global Platts. Aceeaşi opinie este împărtăşită şi de John Stansfield, unul din cei mai experimentaţi analişti de la Group Sopex. În schimb, pentru Raissa Cury Pires da Silva, director de cercetare la firma de trading ED&F Man, lumea se va confrunta cu un al doilea an de surplus de zahăr.

„Avem două semnale pesimiste foarte puternice”, a spus Luis-Manso, referindu-se la noi reduceri ale cererii şi la capacitatea Braziliei de a produce mai mult zahăr. „Ambele semnale au potenţialul de a rezolva acest deficit fără nicio majorare semnificativă de preţ. De acea cred că acest deficit este mult prea mic pentru a fi semnificativ”, adaugă Patricia Luis-Manso.

La bursa de la New York cotaţiile futures la zahăr s-au prăbuşit la începutul anului pe măsură ce pandemia de coronavirus a redus cererea pentru alimente şi combustibili. În plus, trestia de zahăr, materia primă din care se produce zahăr, este utilizată în Brazilia şi pentru a produce etanol. Între timp preţurile la zahăr şi-au revenit, pe măsură ce activitatea s-a reluat, însă pe fondul creşterii cazurilor de infecţie există riscul ca multe state să reintroducă măsurile de izolare.

Bloomberg subliniază că, la nivel mondial, consumul de zahăr era în scădere încă înainte de pandemie pe fondul preocupărilor consumatorilor pentru un stil de viaţă sănătos. Potrivit estimărilor analiştilor de la S&P Global Platts, pandemia a redus cererea de zahăr cu 2,5 milioane de tone în ultimul sezon, comparativ cu prognozele de dinainte de Covid-19, şi noi reduceri sunt aşteptate pentru perioada următoare. Europa este una din pieţele unde cererea de zahăr a fost afectată în mod deosebit, cu o reducere potenţială de până la 500.000 de tone, peste prognozele Comisiei Europene, susţine John Stansfield.

Pe de altă parte, din cauza pandemiei a fost diminuată şi cererea de etanol în Brazilia, astfel încât procesatorii din această ţară au decis să producă mai mult zahăr în loc de biocombustibili. Iar această decizie a fost suficientă pentru a transforma un deficit prognozat la aproape şapte milioane de tone pentru sezonul care se încheie la 30 septembrie, într-un surplus de 800.000 de tone, susţine Raissa Cury Pires da Silva.

„Mizăm pe o reducere a consumului cu peste trei milioane de tone în acest an şi pe revenirea zonei de centru-sud din Brazilia spre o producţie de trestie destinată mai mult producţiei de zahăr. Toate aceste modificări au pus capăt viziunii referitoare la un deficit pe care o aveam la începutul anului”, a spus Raissa Cury Pires da Silva. 

 

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

Articolul precedentTranselectrica are de recuperat creanţe de 47,5 milioane de lei pentru serviciul de transport al electricităţii
Articolul următorCel mai mare salariu minim din lume, votat într-o țară europeană – 21 de Euro pe oră

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