Economist șef de bancă: „Suntem într-o zonă de incertitudine. Probabil că efectele negative în economie se vor extinde şi în 2022”

Economia se află în acest moment într-o zonă de incertitudine, iar pe finalul anului ea va fi afectată şi creşterea economică va decelera, a declarat Ionuţ Dumitru, membru fondator AAFBR şi economist şef Raiffeisen Bank.

„Dacă ne uităm la economie în momentul de faţă suntem cumva într-o zonă de incertitudine, dacă ne uităm un pic în faţă. Avem aceste noi restricţii introduse recent. Probabil că pe finalul anului economia va fi afectată şi creşterea economică va decelera. Am avut însă două trimestre foarte bune – trimestrul I şi trimestrul II. Poate şi trimestrul III va arăta destul de bine, dar în decelerare faţă de trimestrul anterior. Probabil vom închide anul cu o creştere economică de peste 7%. Noi o estimăm la 7,5%, dar în lumina celor mai recente evoluţii probabil că o să fie ceva mai puţin. Probabil că efectele negative se vor extinde şi în 2022, începutul anului viitor, dacă vor fi menţinute restricţiile. Vedem retailul probabil destul de afectat şi se vede asta în numărul de vizitatori. Traficul din magazinele mari a căzut semnificativ în ultimele zile, săptămâni şi probabil vom resimţi acest nou val şi la nivel economic. Din păcate, nu am fost nici prea avansaţi în procesul de vaccinare, am stat foarte prost şi ne-a lovit puternic acest nou val şi inevitabil şi efectele economice se vor resimţi”, a spus Ionuţ Dumitru, la Conferinţa anuală a Asociaţiei Analiştilor Financiar-Bancari din România (AAFBR).

La rândul său, Florian Libocor, membru fondator AAFBR şi economist şef BRD, a afirmat că PIB-ul va rămâne în zona pozitivă, între 6% şi 8%, în funcţie de evoluţia din trimestrele III şi IV. În opinia sa, dacă restricţiile vor rămâne în picioare, efectul se va vedea în performanţa PIB-ului, pentru că atunci când vorbim de „motoarele de creştere nu putem să nu începem cu consumul”.

„Valul IV al pandemiei îl vedem că este probabil din punct de vedere medical cel mai rău prin care a trecut România. Ca urmare, deşi să zicem că Guvernul nu ia măsuri de distanţare, sunt luate individual asemenea măsuri de distanţare de către populaţie. Prin urmare, mă aştept la o decelerare a PIB-ului în trimestrul IV al anului. În special consumul va fi lovit. Partea de investiţii publice cumva a fost la nivelul anului trecut, ceea ce înseamnă că nu va mai aduce un impact la fel de mare cum a fost cel de anul trecut la creşterea PIB-ului. Creşterea PIB cred că va fi consistentă, în jur de 7% în acest an. Va decelera în anul următor poate undeva la 4%”, a spus Adrian Codirlaşu, vicepreşedinte AAFBR şi vicepreşedinte CFA România.

În ceea ce priveşte inflaţia, el a apreciat că am avut până acum efectul de primă rundă produs de creşterea preţurilor la produsele energetice, dar va veni efectul de runda a doua. Orice bun sau serviciu din coşul de consum este „cumva afectat de cel puţin una dintre cele trei forme de energie”. Codirlaşu a estimat că România va avea o majorare a inflaţiei la 7 – 8% pe finalul anului.

În acest context, el crede că este nevoie de o majorare a ratei dobânzii de politică monetară şi se aşteaptă ca BNR să ia o asemenea măsură, iar creşterea să fie mai mare de 25 de puncte de bază.

Asociaţia Analiştilor Financiar-Bancari din România (AAFBR), cu sprijinul PwC România, a organizat săptămâna trecută Conferinţa Anuală AAFBR 2021. În cadrul evenimentului au fost dezbătute perspectivele macroeconomice, dar şi rezultatele studiului realizat recent de AAFBR „Efectele pandemiei în mediul de business”. 

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

Articolul precedentCât de real e scenariul unei pene de curent globale – ADEVĂRUL despre un BLACKOUT în Europa
Articolul următorRealitatea CRUNTĂ a României în 2021: Pensionarii n-au bani nici pentru mâncare – „CARNEA am șters-o de pe listă!”

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