Cererea de gaze ar putea să scadă în 2022

Criza gazelor i-a făcut pe mulți să se orienteze către energia alternativă, însă, marii consumatori au rămas captivi utilizării gazelor naturale. Totuși, Agenţia Internaţională a Energiei (IEA) consideră că încălzirea pe bază de cărbune ar putea fi mult mai ieftină, dacă prețurile la gaze nu se vor stabiliza.

În 2021, consumul de gaze în Europa a crescut cu 5,5%, la 552 miliarde metri cubi (bcm), estimează IEA. Totuşi, cererea ar urma să scadă în 2022 cu aproximativ 4,5%, la 527 bcm, în urma reducerii arderii gazelor în sectorul energiei, care ar putea scădea cu 6% faţă de 2021, previzionează IEA.

„Producerea de energie din gaze ar urma să scadă, pe fondul extinderii semnificative a energiei regenerabile, în timp ce preţurile ridicate la gaze afectează competitivitatea acestora faţă de producerea de energie din cărbune”, se arată în raport.

Preţurile gazelor în Europa şi Asia au urcat la nivelul record anul trecut, în SUA au atins cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimul deceniu, din cauza reducerii livrărilor,a capacităţilor scăzute de stocare, a problemelor cu infrastructura şi a concurenţei gazelor naturale lichefiate (GNL).

Chiar dacă a crescut şi preţul carbonului în Europa, a fost sub nivelul avansului preţului gazelor, favorizând utilizarea cărbunelui pentru producerea de electricitate.

În Europa, livrările mai scăzute decât de obicei prin gazoductele ruseşti, cuplate cu temerile privind întreruperea furnizărilor în eventualitatea sancţiunilor aplicate Rusiei dacă invadează Ucraina, au menţinut ridicat preţul gazelor anul acesta.

IEA se aşteaptă în 2022 ca preţul gazelor în Europa şi preţul LNG în Asia să ajungă la 26 dolari pentru un milion BTU (mmBtu – unitate termală – echivalentul arderii a 2,83 metri cubi de gaze naturale – n.r.) şi, respectiv, 27 dolari pentru un milion BTU, ambele fiind medii anuale record, din cauza nivelului scăzut al stocurilor şi al reducerii livrărilor, a previzionat IEA.

În prezent, la hub-ul de gaze TTF din Olanda, preţul pentru luna martie este de aproximativ 30 dolari pentru un milion BTU, iar în Asia preţul spot pentru gaze naturale lichefiate este de 27 dolari pentru un milion BTU.

Preţurile ridicate se vor menţine până la mijlocul anului viitor, apoi vor scădea dacă se îmbunătăţeşte livrarea, consideră IEA.

În pofida scăderii exporturilor prin gazoductele ruseşti în trimestrul patru al anului trecut, în 2021, exporturile totale prin gazoductele ţării spre Europa, inclusiv Turcia, au urcat în ritm anual cu by 4%, în timp ce fluxurile spre Uniunea Europeană au scăzut cu 3%.

Anul acesta, producţia totală în Rusia este estimată la 763 bcm, în creştere faţă de 761 bcm anul trecut, previzionează IEA.

În Asia, cererea de gaze a urcat cu 7% anul trecut, dar avansul ar urma să încetinească la 5%, la 950 bcm anul acesta. Cererea în China a urcat în 2021 cu 12%, pe fondul redresării economiei, ar anul acesta cererea ar urma să se modereze la 8%, la 394 bcm.

În India, cererea de gaze a urcat cu 5% anul trecut, iar anul acesta se va înregistra o creştere de 8%, în timp ce în America de Nord, cererea de gaze a urcat cu 0,9% anul trecut, şi ar urma să crească cu 1% în 2022.

Agenţia Internaţională a Energiei este principalul organism de consiliere pe probleme energetice al celor mai dezvoltate 29 de state. Agenţia a fost înfiinţată ca răspuns la primul şoc petrolier din 1973 – 1974, pentru a coordona eliberarea de petrol din stocurile de rezervă. 

Sursa: Realitatea Financiara

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