Analiză la Cluj-Napoca – dinamica economiei pre-pandemie și impactul pandemiei COVID-19 asupra economiei locale

Cercetătorii Universității Babeș-Bolyai din Cluj-Napoca (UBB) au analizat evoluția economică a municipiului Cluj-Napoca și a Zonei Metropolitane Cluj în deceniul precedent pandemiei, realizând și o analiză a impactului crizei COVID-19 asupra pieței muncii din Zona metropolitană Cluj.

Analiza realizată de Centrul Interdisciplinar pentru Știința Datelor din cadrul UBB este o premieră pentru că analizează o economie la nivel de oraș și de zonă metropolitana, în condițiile în care majoritatea statisticilor naționale publicate periodic se opresc la nivel de județ. Raportul UBB completează datele naționale, astfel încât sa ofere un tablou ante pandemie, relevant în special în contextul impactului economic semnificativ al pandemiei Sars-Cov2 (COVID-19), studiul reprezentând o radiografie a dinamicii economice locale din mai multe perspective.  

„Ne aflăm într-o perioadă foarte importantă pentru că urmează noul exercițiu financiar al Uniunii Europene, astfel încât de modul în care ne pregătim pentru a accesa resursele financiare va depinde bunăstarea noastră în următorii ani. Am gândit acest Centru Interdisciplinar pentru Știința Datelor pentru a veni și în sprijinul comunității, iar prima acțiune majoră, cu implicații pentru toată lumea, este analiza comprehensivă pe care acest centru a realizat-o asupra datelor care țin de economia Clujului (în ultimul deceniu), cu impact ulterior mai larg asupra Zonei Metropolitane Cluj. Este foarte important să înțelegem aceste date pentru că ele ne pot ajuta să lămurim întrebări esențiale cărora, uneori le-au fost date răspunsuri orientative (sau care țin de zona mitului), nu răspunsuri constante de tip «evidence-based»: (1) Este Cluj-Napoca cel mai important pol de creștere din România (sigur, scoțând capitala din ecuație)?, (2) Creează acest pol bunăstare în jur, în Zona Metropolitană și în Regiunea de Dezvoltare Nord-Vest sau, din contră, creează discrepanțe? (3) Este orașul Cluj-Napoca mai academic, mai universitar decât alte orașe mari din țară dacă ne raportăm la numărul studenților vs. populația orașului? Care sunt zonele de specializare inteligentă care ne pot oferi un avantaj competitiv global? În funcție de cum răspundem la aceste întrebări, putem planifica adecvat bunăstarea prezentului și viitorului”, afirmă rectorul UBB, prof. univ. dr. Daniel David, subliniind că implicarea în comunitate este o componentă fundamentală a Universității Babeș-Bolyai, evident, alături de componentele de cercetare și predare.

Potrivit analizei realizate de cercetătorii UBB, economia Zonei Metropolitane Cluj-Napoca a crescut din ianuarie 2019, până în ianuarie 2020, cu 2,3% la nivelul pieței muncii (cu 5.818 locuri de muncă), ritm de expansiune similar creșterii anuale din ultima decadă, ceea ce a făcut din Cluj cea mai dinamică economie regională din România.

Până la sfârșitul lunii mai 2020 s-au pierdut însă 3.437 locuri de muncă, ceea ce înseamnă o scădere de 1,4% a numărului de salariați. La nivel județean, pierderea a fost de 4.126 locuri de muncă. Astfel, potrivit analizei, 1 din 4 salariați din județul Cluj a avut contractul suspendat în contextul pandemiei, iar până în luna iulie, în județul Cluj au fost suspendate 77.450 de mii de contracte în regim de urgență. Cele mai multe contracte (67%) au fost suspendate în Cluj-Napoca, fapt previzibil în condițiile în care municipiul concentrează 71% din forța de muncă a județului.

Cei mai mulți dintre salariații cu contracte suspendate au fost în șomaj tehnic, indemnizația pentru părinți în contextul pandemiei fiind alocată doar pentru 6% din contractele suspendate.

Categoria de salariați cel mai puternic afectată a fost cea a muncitorilor, studiul arătând că au fost suspendate 33.600 (43%) de contracte pentru persoane angajate ca muncitori calificați, semicalificați (operatori) și necalificati. În industrie, 1 din 3 salariați au fost în șomaj tehnic, iar 24% din totalul contractelor suspendate au fost pentru lucrătorii în comerț. În sectorul de ospitalitate unde lucrează 11.400 de persoane în Zona Metropolitană Cluj, 62% dintre contractele de muncă au fost suspendate. De asemenea, în sectorul de servicii personale (coafor, frizeri, make-up, fitness), 42% din salariați au avut contractele suspendate.

În perioada stării de urgență au fost suspendate 3.481 contracte pentru directorii generali și executivi ai companiilor mari, iar o parte dintre companii au folosit contextul creat de pandemie pentru a se restructura și a a ține sub control bugetul total de salarii.

„Economia este în curs de revenire. În acest moment, în județul Cluj mai sunt suspendate 7.728 contracte în termeni de urgență, iar în Cluj-Napoca, 5.756, fapt care înseamnă că doar 2,7% din salariați au contractele suspendate”, afirmă specialiștii care au realizat studiul.

În Cluj-Napoca, sectorul de IT a crescut cu 2% în perioada pandemiei, ceea ce face ca în acest moment acesta să fie cel mai mare sector economic al orașului, cu 25.886 de angajați.

De asemenea, studiul arată că în anul 2018, Clujul a înregistrat cea mai mare valoare a veniturilor realizate în mediul privat din România, în afara capitalei. Veniturile private au crescut în perioada 2008-2018 cu 171%.

 „Economia Clujului s-a dublat în deceniul precedent pandemiei (date disponibile începând cu 2008) – volumul economiei atât în Cluj-Napoca, cât și în Zona Metropolitană Cluj. Clujul este un exemplu de oraș a cărui economie locală și compoziție a forței de muncă s-a schimbat în mod dramatic după Criza Financiară din 2008-2010, Cluj-Napoca excelează în patru domenii transnaționale: tehnologia informației & comunicații, servicii de suport pentru afaceri, inginerie & cercetare & dezvoltare, precum și servicii financiare. Indicatorii cheie de performanță analizați pentru raportul statistic plasează Clujul pe un trend economic ascendent din perspectiva majorității direcțiilor economice relevante. Spre exemplu, în perioada studiată, PIB-ul a avut o rată de creștere de 115% în timp ce PIB-ul per capita a crescut cu 110%”, subliniază autorii studiului. 

În anul 2018, Cluj-Napoca a fost unul dintre orașele din Uniunea Europeană cu cea mai importantă creștere economică în grupa de PIB/loc 19.000 – 27.000 și se află în top 50 orașe care au demonstrat un angajament credibil pentru promovarea cunoașterii, culturii și creativității, situându-se pe poziția a 16-a ca mărime a economiei bazate pe cunoaștere și creativitate. 

Pe lângă acești indicatori generali, care conturează poziția municipiului Cluj-Napoca și a Zonei Metropolitane Cluj în context național și european, studiul oferă și date concrete despre firme, salariați sau structura economică sectorială ce stă la baza economiei municipiului și a zonei metropolitane.

Studiul a fost realizat de către Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai prin Centrul Interdisciplinar pentru Știința Datelor, coordonat de conf. univ. dr. Norbert Petrovici, cu sprijinul Primăriei municipiului Cluj-Napoca.

Prezentarea studiului realizat de Norbert Petrovici, Codruța Mare (autori)
Darie Moldovan (inginer date) poate fi consultată  aici.  

Sursa: Realitatea de Cluj

Articolul precedentNumărul de firme dizolvate a scăzut cu un sfert în prima jumătate a anului
Articolul următorSemnal de alarmă, revenirea crizei COVID în SUA reduce șansele de redresare economică

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